Thursday, May 30, 2024

The Art of Encoding Categorical Variables in an Automated Valuation Model (AVM)

Target Audience: New Graduates/Analysts

One-hot coding and effect coding are two common methods used to encode categorical variables in statistical analysis. One-hot coding involves creating binary columns for each category in the variable. Each column represents a category, and a value of 1 indicates the presence of that category, while 0 indicates the absence. This method results in a binary representation of the categories. Effect coding is a contrast coding method that compares each level of a categorical variable to the grand median (in AVM) of all levels. It uses one less variable than one-hot coding and allows for comparison between categories.

Example 1

Let's say we have a categorical variable, "Neighborhood," that describes three neighborhoods: "Downtown," "Suburb," and "Rural" in a city. We want to encode it using one-hot coding and effect coding.

One-Hot Coding:

·         "Downtown" would be encoded as [1, 0, 0]

·         "Suburb" would be encoded as [0, 1, 0]

·         "Rural" would be encoded as [0, 0, 1]

Effect Coding:

·         "Downtown" would be encoded as [-2, 1, 1]

  • "Suburb" would be encoded as [1, -2, 1]
  • "Rural" would be encoded as [1, 1, -2]

In effect coding, the coefficients sum to zero, with one level as the reference category (-2) and the other as comparisons (1).

In summary, one-hot coding creates binary columns for each category, while effect coding compares each category to the grand median. Both methods have their uses in different statistical analyses and modeling techniques.

While one-hot coding and effect coding are two common methods used to encode categorical variables in statistical analysis, they are not the only methods available. Here are a few other common methods:

1.    Label Encoding: Label encoding assigns a unique numerical value to each category in the variable. This method is simple and efficient but may not be suitable for models that assume ordinal relationships between categories.

2.    Binary Encoding: Binary encoding converts each category into binary digits and represents them in a new set of columns. This method reduces the number of columns compared to one-hot encoding while preserving the information about the categories.

3.    Helmert Coding: Helmert coding compares each categorical variable level with the subsequent levels' median. This method is useful for capturing changes or trends in the categories.

4.    Sum Coding: Sum coding compares each level of a categorical variable with the overall median of all levels. This method provides information about differences between each level and the overall median.

Each encoding method has its advantages and drawbacks, and the choice of method depends on the nature of the categorical variable and the specific requirements of the analysis or model being used.

Continuing with our "Neighborhood" categorical variable in the housing market for the other encoding methods:

1.    Label Encoding: If we use label encoding for the "Neighborhood" variable:

  • "Downtown" could be encoded as 1
  • "Suburb" could be encoded as 2
  • "Rural" could be encoded as 3

2.    Binary Encoding: If we use binary encoding for the "Neighborhood" variable:

  • "Downtown" could be encoded as [0, 0]
  • "Suburb" could be encoded as [0, 1]
  • "Rural" could be encoded as [1, 0]

3.    Helmert Coding: If we use Helmert coding for the "Neighborhood" variable:

  • "Downtown" would be encoded as [1, -1, 0]
  • "Suburb" would be encoded as [1, 1, -2]
  • "Rural" would be encoded as [1, 1, 1]

4.    Sum Coding: If we use sum coding for the "Neighborhood" variable:

  • "Downtown" would be encoded as [1, -1, 0]
  • "Suburb" would be encoded as [0, 1, -1]
  • "Rural" would be encoded as [0, 0, 1]

These examples demonstrate how different encoding methods can represent the same categorical variable in various numerical formats, each with its own characteristics and implications for analysis or modeling in the housing market context.

One-Hot Coding

When dealing with a categorical variable with more than two levels (e.g., four categories: Mid-density Non-HOA, High-density Non-HOA, PUD, and MPUD), AVM analysts can use a technique called one-hot encoding to represent these categories in a regression model.

One-hot encoding involves creating binary dummy variables for each category of the categorical variable. Each dummy variable represents one category and takes on values of 0 or 1.

Here's how they can encode the above categorical variable with four categories for a regression model:

1.    Mid-density Non-HOA: This category would be represented by a dummy variable that takes on the value of 1 if the observation falls into this category and 0 otherwise.

2.    High-density Non-HOA: Another dummy variable would be created for this category with the same logic as above.

3.    PUD: They would assign a dummy variable for this category.

4.    MPUD: Similarly, they would create a dummy variable for this category.

Using one-hot encoding in this manner, they can incorporate a categorical variable with multiple levels into their regression model, allowing them to analyze the impact of different categories on the dependent variable while maintaining the regression model's linearity assumption.

Important Note

AVM analysts will create four dummy variables to represent each category using one-hot encoding for a categorical variable with four distinct categories (Mid-density Non-HOA, High-density Non-HOA, PUD, and MPUD). Each dummy variable would take on 1 if the observation belongs to that particular category and 0 if it does not. This approach allows them to include all four variable categories in the regression model and analyze their effects on the dependent variable separately.

Effect Coding

Example 2


Effect coding a categorical variable like the TOWNSHIP variable in a regression model can be statistically valid and useful for comparing the mean (or median) response across different categorical variable levels to an overall mean (or median).

By effect coding the TOWNSHIP variable, the model examines how each township's median SP/SF deviates from the countywide median. This approach allows for the evaluation of the average effect of each township on the dependent variable, Adjusted Sale Price while accounting for the countywide effect.

Median vs. Median in Effect Coding

Even if the data series does not contain many outliers, using the median instead of the median can still be preferable in certain instances, especially in an AVM. The median is a robust measure of central tendency less affected by extreme values than the median. By using the median to code a categorical variable like the TOWNSHIP variable in a regression model, analysts ensure that the central tendency measure chosen is not unduly influenced by any outliers in the data.

In cases where the data is skewed or if there are concerns about outliers impacting the average, the median can provide a more stable estimate of the central tendency and better reflect the typical value within each township. Therefore, even if the data series does not contain many outliers, selecting the median over the median can still be suitable for creating more robust and reliable effect coding for the regression model.

Case for Effect Coding

Effect coding can be employed to represent a categorical variable with four levels (Mid-density Non-HOA, High-density Non-HOA, PUD, and MPUD) as a single variable in a regression model for sale price while preserving linearity. This technique captures the combined influence of all four categories on the dependent variable by considering their deviations from the overall median. By incorporating these effect-coded variables into the model, analysts can analyze the impact of the categorical variable while maintaining a linear relationship with the sale price.

Example 3

Let's consider a numerical example to demonstrate effect coding for a categorical variable with four categories: Mid-density Non-HOA, High-density Non-HOA, PUD, and MPUD, with the following data:

·         Mid-density Non-HOA: Median Sale Price = $300,000

·         High-density Non-HOA: Median Sale Price = $320,000

·         PUD: Median Sale Price = $350,000

·         MPUD: Median Sale Price = $380,000

·         Overall Median Sale Price = $337,500

To apply effect coding, the differences between each category median and the overall median have to be calculated:

1.    Mid-density Non-HOA Effect: $300,000 (category median) - $337,500 (overall median) = -$37,500

2.    High-density Non-HOA Effect: $320,000 (category median) - $337,500 (overall median) = -$17,500

3.    PUD Effect: $350,000 (category median) - $337,500 (overall median) = $12,500

4.    MPUD Effect: $380,000 (category median) - $337,500 (overall median) = $42,500

Effect-coded variables for the four categories using these calculated values have been created. For each observation, the effect-coded variable will reflect the difference between the category median and the overall median of Sale Price. In the regression model, analysts would include these effect-coded variables and other independent variables to analyze the impact of the categorical variable on the dependent variable (Adjusted Sale Price) while maintaining linearity.

Important to Note

Creating the effect-coded variable using a normalized variable such as SP/SF instead of the sale price itself can be a reasonable approach, especially if analysts are interested in capturing the impact of the categorical variable on the price per square foot specifically.

When using normalized variables, they are standardizing the metric or unit of measurement, which can help improve the interpretability and comparability of coefficients in the regression model.

In this case, creating effect-coded variables based on the SP/SF (a normalized measure) for the four categories can help them assess how each category influences the price per square foot compared to the overall price per square foot median.

However, it is important to keep in mind that when using normalized variables, the interpretation of the coefficients in the regression model will be based on the price per square foot, not the absolute sale price. Additionally, including the living area as a separate independent variable in the regression equation will allow them to analyze its individual effect on the dependent variable while assessing the impact of the categorical variable on the price per square foot.

Conclusion

One-hot and effect coding are valuable techniques for transforming categorical variables into a format usable by automated valuation models (AVMs). Here's a breakdown of their strengths and weaknesses to help you choose the best approach for your AVM:

One-Hot Coding:

·         Strengths: Simple to implement, easy to interpret coefficients, avoid multicollinearity.

·         Weaknesses: Increases model complexity with many categories, can be data-hungry for large datasets.

Effect Coding:

·         Strengths: It is more efficient for models with many categories, reduces multicollinearity, and allows for comparisons between specific categories.

·     Weaknesses: Interpretation of coefficients can be less intuitive and requires choosing a reference category that may influence results.

Choosing the Right Approach:

·         One-hot coding is a good choice for AVMs with a small number of categorical variables or when a clear interpretation of individual category coefficients is crucial.

·         Effect coding is preferable for AVMs with many categories or when you're interested in comparing specific categories (e.g., pool vs. no pool).

The optimal approach depends on the specific characteristics of the AVM and the intended research questions. To determine the most suitable method, it is recommended that the model be run with both coding approaches and that the results be compared. This comparison will reveal which method yields the most interpretable and accurate data assessment.

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Sunday, May 26, 2024

The Role of Quantitative Variables in Automated Valuation Modeling (AVM)

Target Audience: New Graduates/Analysts

In statistics, a quantitative variable represents numeric values that can be measured and compared in magnitude. The three main types of quantitative variables are continuous, ratio, and discrete.

Continuous variable: A continuous variable can take any numerical value within a range. For example, in an AVM, the sale price is a continuous variable because it can take on any value within a specific range, such as $100,000 or $200,000. This variable type helps measure variation and compares different values along a continuum.

Ratio variable: A ratio variable, like the adjusted sale price per square foot (SP/SF), is a powerful tool in property valuation. It has a true zero point, meaning a value of zero indicates the absence of the thing being measured. This precision allows for meaningful comparisons in ratios and proportions, enhancing the accuracy of property valuation.

Discrete variable: A discrete variable, such as the median monthly sale prices, is a versatile tool in property valuation. It takes on specific numerical values that are separate and distinct from each other, allowing for counting and representing distinct categories or events. This versatility makes it adaptable to various property valuation scenarios.

In an AVM, using these three types of quantitative variables – sale price (continuous), SP/SF (ratio), and median monthly sale prices (discrete) – will help capture different aspects of the housing market in a specific county. By incorporating these variables, analysts can provide a more comprehensive and accurate valuation of properties based on various metrics and factors.

Continuous vs. Ratio Variable

Suppose you are developing an AVM for a specific county with arms-length sales from the recent nine quarters. Before starting the regression modeling, you must understand the adjusted sale price's nuances in raw and normalized (SP/SF) forms. Here is how to compare and contrast their statistical measures.

1. Mean:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Mean: $436,481
  • SP/SF Mean: $218.99

Comparison: The mean provides the average value of the data. It is a central measure that can help understand the general value of properties in the dataset.

Contrast: While the adjusted sale price gives an overall average value of properties sold, the SP/SF mean gives a measure of value standardized by the property size. This can help in comparing properties of different sizes.

2. Standard Error:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Standard Error: $1,415
  • SP/SF Standard Error: $0.44

Comparison: The standard error indicates the variability or uncertainty in the mean estimate. A smaller standard error suggests a more precise estimate.

Contrast: The standard error for adjusted sale price and SP/SF helps assess the reliability of the mean estimates. Understanding the accuracy of the valuation predictions is particularly important in AVMs.

3. Median:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Median: $401,962
  • SP/SF Median: $214.26

Comparison: The median represents the middle value of the dataset when arranged in order. It is a robust measure that is not affected by extreme values.

Contrast: Using the median alongside the mean provides a more complete picture of the data distribution. It can help identify any skewness or outliers impacting the valuation model.

4. Mode:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Mode: $381,196
  • SP/SF Mode: $194.89

Comparison: The mode is the most frequently occurring value in the dataset. Understanding common pricing trends can be useful.

Contrast: While the mean and median provide central measures, the mode gives insight into popular price points. This information can be valuable in identifying pricing patterns and preferences in the housing market.

5. Standard Deviation:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Standard Deviation: $153,531
  • SP/SF Standard Deviation: $48.26

Comparison: The standard deviation measures the dispersion of the data points around the mean. A higher standard deviation indicates greater variability in the dataset.

Contrast: Understanding the standard deviation for both adjusted sale price and SP/SF helps assess the spread of property values and can aid in determining the level of risk associated with valuation estimates.

6. Kurtosis:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Kurtosis: 1.02213
  • SP/SF Kurtosis: 9.4649

Comparison: The kurtosis value for adjusted sale price is around 1.02213, close to a normal distribution with moderate tailedness.

Contrast: However, the SP/SF kurtosis value of 9.4649 suggests a highly peaked distribution or heavy tails, indicating a departure from normality and the potential presence of outliers or extreme values.

7. Skewness:

  • Adjusted Sale Price Skewness: 1.10514
  • SP/SF Skewness: 1.8910

Comparison: Both the adjusted sale price and SP/SF skewness values are positive, indicating right-skewed distributions where the tail is on the right side of the peak.

Contrast: The skewness values suggest that the data is skewed toward higher values, with the SP/SF distribution exhibiting slightly higher skewness than the adjusted sale price.

In essence, each of these statistical measures provides valuable insights into the distribution, variability, and central tendencies of the property values in the dataset. By accounting for different aspects of the data distribution, incorporating these measures in an AVM can enhance the accuracy and reliability of the valuation predictions.

Important to Understand

Analyzing the sale price per living square foot (SP/SF) as a normalized ratio can provide additional insights and a more meaningful perspective in understanding the local housing market for several reasons:

1. Standardization: SP/SF makes comparing properties of differing sizes easier. This allows for a more direct comparison (apples to apples) based on the property's value relative to its size.

2. Fair Comparison: SP/SF provides a fair comparison between properties with different sizes. This can help evaluate properties' value propositions irrespective of their size.

3. Market Analysis: SP/SF can help identify trends in pricing per unit area over time. It can reveal whether there are specific patterns in how prices change based on property size, which can be valuable for market analysis.

4. Understanding Value: Analyzing the SP/SF can provide insights into the value buyers place on living space. It can help understand preferences for larger or smaller properties and their corresponding price points.

5. Property Valuation: SP/SF is a standard metric real estate professionals use for appraisals and property valuation purposes. It allows for a standardized approach to assessing property values.

However, it's important to note that while SP/SF offers several advantages, it should not be the sole metric for analyzing the local housing market. Raw sale prices may still be relevant, especially when considering other factors such as location, amenities, market conditions, and property features. Both metrics provide valuable insights, and a comprehensive analysis should consider a combination of normalized and raw prices to understand the local housing market.

Discrete Quantitative Variable

A discrete variable is a quantitative variable that can take on a finite number of distinct and separate values; for instance, if we have the median sale prices for each month from January to December, each month (e.g., January, February, March, etc.) represents a discrete value for the median sale price.

These values can be measured, counted, and analyzed numerically, fitting the criteria of a discrete quantitative variable.

The variable doesn't exist on a continuous spectrum. There aren't "in-between" months or quarters, so one can't have a 1.3rd quarter or July and a half. There are distinct categories (months or quarters) with clear boundaries. Even though it's not continuous, the variable represents numerical values. One can order the months (1st, 2nd, 3rd...) or quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) in a sequence.

In summary, while month and quarter are categories, they have a defined order and can be used in calculations, making them discreet quantitative variables.

Example

The breakdown of the median sale price and median SP/SF by quarter creates discrete quantitative variables. Discrete variables can take on a finite number of values within a specific range. In this case, the number of possible values for the median sale price and median SP/SF is limited by the number of quarterly sales.

Here’s an analysis of the breakdown of the two variables in the table you provided:

    1) Median Sale Price: There is a seasonal pattern to the median sale price, with higher prices in the second and third quarters (Q2 and Q3) and lower prices in the first and fourth quarters (Q1 and Q4). This could be due to several factors, such as buyer behavior or the availability of listings. For example, more people may be looking to buy a house in the spring and summer months, which could increase prices. Additionally, sellers may be more motivated to sell their homes before the end of the year, which could lead to lower prices in Q4.

   2) Median SP/SF: The median SP/SF also shows a seasonal pattern, with higher prices in Q2 and Q3 and lower prices in Q1 and Q4. This suggests that the seasonal pattern in the median sale price is likely due to changes in the types of properties sold rather than changes in the overall housing price in the county. For example, a higher proportion of larger homes may be sold in Q2 and Q3, which would drive up the median SP/SF.

Overall, the breakdown of the median sale price and median SP/SF by quarter, leading to a discreet variable, can help understand the seasonal trends in the housing market. This information can also help build a more accurate AVM by considering when a property is sold.

In conclusion, understanding the different types of quantitative variables empowers analysts to leverage the data effectively. Combining continuous, ratio, and discrete variables provides a comprehensive view of the housing market, making AVM a valuable tool for property valuation.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2024

The Art and Science of Time Adjustments in AVM – Part 2 of 2

Part 2 of 2

Target Audience: New Graduates/Analysts

Time Adjustment in AVM (Quick Review):

Automated valuation models (AVMs) involve adjusting sale prices to account for changes in market conditions between a property's sale and valuation dates, considering real estate markets fluctuate, meaning that a house sold last year may not be directly comparable to an identical house sold today. Here is why time adjustment is needed:

1. Adjusting sale prices to reflect the market conditions at the valuation date allows the model to provide a more accurate estimate of the property's value on the target valuation date. This precision, achieved through diligent time adjustments, inspires confidence in the reliability of the AVM. 

2. Time-adjusted sale prices improve model accuracy by ensuring that the model considers market trends, leading to more reliable valuations. 

3. Consistent time adjustment across all comparable properties enhances model consistency, allowing the model to compare "apples to apples" when estimating the value of the subject property.

By incorporating time-adjusted sale prices as the dependent variable instead of the raw sale prices in the regression-based AVM, the model can produce more realistic and reliable property valuations that reflect the market conditions at the valuation date.

Using an Extended Time Series dataset


(Click on the image to enlarge)


Suppose you are developing an AVM using a single-family home sales dataset sample from a specific county, with sales from the previous nine quarters (Q1-2022 to Q1-2024). The target is to value properties on April 1, 2024. So, the regression model's dependent variable (sale price) must be adjusted to the target valuation date.

There are two common median-based methods for time-adjusting sales prices:

1) Sale price adjustment: This method adjusts the entire sales price for changes in the market over time. It calculates a percentage change in the median sale price from the sale date to the target valuation date, which is then applied to the individual sales prices to adjust them to the target valuation date. 

·              Advantages:

o   Easier to understand and interpret by users of the AVM.

o   Less susceptible to outliers caused by unusually large or small homes because it considers the whole property, not just the price per square foot.


Disadvantages:

o It doesn't account for size differences between houses. A few large, expensive homes in an affluent neighborhood can skew the median up, making it a less accurate reflection of the value of smaller homes.

2) SP/SF adjustment: This method adjusts the sales price per square foot (SP/SF) for changes in the market over time. It calculates a percentage change in the median SP/SF from the sale date to the target valuation date, which is then applied to the individual SP/SF figures to adjust to the target valuation date.

            Advantages:

o   Takes into account the size of the property, providing a more standardized measure of price.

o   This can be particularly important in areas with a mix of large and small houses.


Disadvantages:

o   It can be more difficult for users to understand the metric's meaning, especially if they are recent graduates unfamiliar with real estate valuation.

o   More susceptible to outliers caused by unusually high or low prices per square foot.

Analyzing the two methods – Median Sale Price and Median Sale Price per Square Foot (SP/SF) – for adjusting the dependent variable in the regression model for the AVM using the single-family home sales data requires a comparative evaluation based on the averages, standard deviations, and coefficient of variations (CV).

1.    Median Sale Price Method:

o    Average Median Sale Price: $394,139

o    Standard Deviation of Median Sale Price: $11,567

o    Coefficient of Variation (CV) for Median Sale Price: 2.93%

2.    Median Sale Price per Square Foot (SP/SF) Method:

o    Average Median SP/SF: $210.00

o    Standard Deviation of Median SP/SF: $5.84

o    Coefficient of Variation (CV) for Median SP/SF: 2.78%

Comparative Analysis:

- The Coefficient of Variation (CV) for the Median Sale Price method is slightly higher than that for the Median SP/SF method, suggesting that the Median Sale Price has slightly higher relative variability.

- The Median Sale Price per Square Foot method could be more robust due to the lower Standard Deviation and CV, implying that the SP/SF values are less dispersed around the average than the Median Sale Price.

Considering the comparative analysis, the Median Sale Price per Square Foot (SP/SF) method may be preferable for adjusting the dependent variable in the AVM model. The lower variability and CV suggest that using SP/SF as a measure may provide more stability and consistency in estimating property values for the target month of April 2024. This method could offer more reliable and accurate valuation predictions than the Median Sale Price method.

Alternative Method – Two-quarter Moving Averages

Using a two-quarter moving average can help smooth out the quarter-to-quarter volatility in the data and potentially provide a more stable trend for analysis. It can help reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations and noise in the data, making it easier to identify underlying patterns and trends.

Calculating a moving average of the sales data over two quarters can create a more stable trend line that captures the market's medium-term changes rather than its short-term ups and downs. This can be particularly useful when the data exhibits high volatility or seasonality.

In terms of statistical significance, a moving average can help reveal longer-term patterns and trends that may not be as apparent when looking at the unadjusted quarterly medians. By smoothing out the data, you can identify more meaningful relationships and patterns that can be statistically significant.

However, it's essential to note that using a moving average involves a trade-off between responsiveness to changes and smoothing out volatility. A two-quarter moving average may not capture rapid shifts in the market as effectively as using the unadjusted quarterly medians, but it can provide a more stable and easier-to-interpret trend for analysis.

Overall, using a two-quarter moving average can be a valuable approach to reducing noise and volatility in the data and uncovering more statistically significant trends and patterns when analyzing single-family home sales data over time.

Simple Moving Average vs. Exponential Moving Average

In a two-quarter Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculation, you typically average the values of the current quarter and previous quarters' values. This method helps smooth out data fluctuations and gives you a clearer trend over time.

To calculate a two-quarter SMA, you would sum the current quarter's and previous quarters' values and then divide by 2. This would give you the moving average for that particular quarter.

If you were to average the current quarter and the prior moving average, it would be a different type of moving average calculation known as an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which gives more weight to recent data points.



This table shows the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) values calculated for the prior nine quarters from the same home sales data. To determine which method produces smoother and less volatile values that are more suitable for adjusting raw sales prices (leading to a statistically significant time-adjusted sale price), we can analyze:

1.    SMA (Simple Moving Average):

  • SMA calculates the average of a given set of prices over a specific period by equally weighting each price.
  • When comparing the SMA to the Median Sale Price (MSP), we find that the SMA values tend to track closer to the MSP but may lag behind significant price changes.
  • The percentage difference between SMA and MSP ranges from 96.06% to 102.60%, indicating some volatility in the SMA values compared to the MSP.
  • SMA generally irons out short-term fluctuations and is suitable for identifying trends over time. However, its responsiveness to recent price changes may be slower than that of EMA.

2.    EMA (Exponential Moving Average):

  • EMA places more weight on recent prices, making it more responsive to recent price changes than SMA.
  • The EMA values tend to be more separated from the MSP and demonstrate increased volatility compared to the SMA. The percentage difference between EMA and MSP ranges from 94.10% to 102.29%, showing more fluctuation in EMA values.

The percentage differences between the EMA and MSP values are higher than between the SMA and MSP values. This means the EMA values exhibit more fluctuation relative to the MSP than the SMA values.

Therefore, based on this analysis, we can conclude that the SMA method produces smoother and less volatile values that are more suitable for adjusting raw sales prices to create a time-adjusted sale price for use as the dependent variable in a regression-based AVM in this particular scenario.

Monthly vs. Quarterly Adjustments (Extended Time Series)

Monthly adjustments can introduce more noise and volatility into the data, making the dependent variable less stable when compared to quarterly adjustments. Monthly data often reflect short-term fluctuations and can be influenced by factors such as seasonality, irregular events, or other short-term variations.

This inherent noise and volatility in monthly data can make it challenging to accurately identify and interpret underlying trends. It may also lead to a less stable dependent variable when constructing AVMs, where the goal is to predict property values based on historical sales data.

By using quarterly adjustments instead of monthly ones, you can smooth out some short-term fluctuations and reduce the noise in the data. Quarterly adjustments provide a more aggregated and stable representation of trends over time, which can help create a more reliable and robust dependent variable for modeling purposes.

Ultimately, the choice between monthly and quarterly adjustments should be guided by the specific characteristics of the data, the objectives of the analysis, and the trade-offs between noise reduction and capturing short-term dynamics. It's essential to carefully consider the implications of using different adjustment intervals (e.g., consider 3-quarter moving averages if you are using three years of sales) and choose the approach that best aligns with the goals of the analysis.

Conclusion

This blog post illustrates the importance of time-adjusting sale prices to create a reliable and stable dependent variable for regression-based AVMs. By utilizing sales data over multiple quarters and employing methodologies such as Quarterly Median Sale Price per Square Foot and Simple Moving Average, the benefits of smoothing out volatility and creating a more consistent time-adjusted sale price variable have been demonstrated.

The examples show that the Quarterly Median Sale Price per Square Foot and the Simple Moving Average methods provide smoother and less volatile values, making them ideal choices for time adjustment in an AVM. However, it is crucial to exercise caution and ensure that the selected methodology aligns with the specific characteristics of the analyzed real estate market. This responsibility is critical to mitigating potential risks.

By incorporating these time-adjusted sale prices into the valuation process, analysts and new graduates can enhance the accuracy and reliability of their regression models, ultimately producing more robust and dependable property valuations.

Disclaimer: This blog post serves as a starting point. As you gain experience with AVMs, you can explore more advanced time-adjustment techniques and refine your model for optimal performance. Remember, continuous learning is a journey, and support and encouragement are available along the way.

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