Saturday, November 16, 2024

Rethinking Quality of Life: A Data-Driven Approach to Enhancing Expat Retirement on Fixed Income in Latin America

Target Audience: New Graduates/Analysts

As millions of retirees from the USA and Canada seek affordable and appealing retirement destinations in Latin America, traditional quality-of-life ranking systems often fail to provide a comprehensive evaluation. Given that many retirees depend on fixed incomes, developing a robust methodology that offers a nuanced assessment of quality of life factors is essential. 

While various alternative approaches exist, this blog post explores using effect coding to re-evaluate traditional ranking systems. By reassessing quality of life indexes in Latin American countries, this approach aims to provide retirees with a more informed perspective on potential retirement destinations, ensuring that their fixed incomes can support a comfortable lifestyle.

Using the Effect Coding Method

Here are the steps to create a competing QOL index using the same components but applying the effect coding method:

**Step 1: Component Averages** 

Calculate the average value of each component across the Latin American countries, the U.S., and Canada.

**Step 2: Average Deviations** 

Determine the deviation of each country's component value from the average component value.

**Step 3: Average Effect** 

Compute the average of the deviations obtained in Step 2.

**Step 4: New Index and Ranking** 

Using the average deviations from Step 3, develop a new QOL index for each country, thus adjusting the original country rankings accordingly.

A new QOL index based on the same components can be established by following these steps and utilizing the effect coding method.

Step 1 – Computing Component Averages

Data Source: Numbeo

The data table from the Numbeo site presents the overall quality of life index for various Latin American countries compared to the U.S. and Canada. It also includes the component indices (1 through 8) contributing to the overall quality of life (QOL) calculation.

This first step is crucial in creating a comparable quality of life index. Calculating the average for each component across all countries establishes a baseline against which to measure each country's relative performance. This provides a benchmark or reference point for each component and helps identify the countries that perform better or worse than the average in specific areas.

Step 2 – Calculating Average Deviations

Click on the image to enlarge.

For Step 2, the deviation of each country's component score from the respective component average will indicate how much a country's score differs from the average for that component.

Here's the formula for calculating the deviation for a specific country and component:

Deviation = Country's Score - Component Average

Example:

If the average for "Purchase Power" is 50, and a country's score is 60, then the deviation for that country in "Purchase Power" would be:

Deviation = 60 - 50 = 10

Step 3 – Finding the Average Effect

The average effect is calculated for each country based on the average of the average deviations. This step is crucial in determining the overall adjustment factor for each country's quality of life index based on the effect coding method.

Countries are essentially re-ranked by calculating the average effect based on their overall performance relative to the average.

·   Positive Average Effect: The country generally performs better than the average across all components.

·   Negative Average Effect: The country generally performs worse than the average across all components.

Step 4 – Creating the New Index and Ranking

The changes in ranking observed for the countries in the new quality of life index can be attributed to the effect coding method, which adjusts the original quality of life index values based on the deviations of each country's component values from the average component values.

Here are some reasons why Ecuador, Panama, Brazil, and Argentina dropped in ranking while Chile, Peru, and Colombia moved up:

1. Effect of Deviations: Countries with negative average effects in the effect coding process, such as Ecuador, Panama, Brazil, and Argentina, experienced decreased rankings. Negative average effects indicate that these countries had below-average component values compared to the overall average, leading to a downward adjustment in their quality of life index rankings.

2. Relative Component Performance: The effect coding method emphasizes how each country's component values deviate from the average, guiding the adjustments in the quality of life index. Countries like Chile, Peru, and Colombia had positive average effects, indicating above-average component values relative to the average. This improvement in component performance contributed to an increase in their quality of life index rankings.

3. Overall Effect Balance: The effect coding method aims to balance the effects of deviations across all components and countries, ensuring a fair and standardized approach to adjusting the quality of life index rankings. The adjustments reflect how each country's component values compare to the overall average, leading to the observed shifts in rankings.

By carefully analyzing these factors, expat retirees can gain valuable insights into the reasons behind the observed ranking changes and the overall implications of the new QOL index.

Crowd-sourced Data

When analyzing crowd-sourced data, such as the Numbeo data in this analysis, the data points for each country and component can vary due to user contributions, reporting bias, and data availability. Analysts can use the average effect (the average of average deviations) instead of the total effect (the sum of average deviations) to address these variations. The average effect offers a more robust measure that helps balance discrepancies in data points, leading to a more reliable assessment of the deviations and their impact on the quality of life index.

Therefore, in the context of crowd-sourced data, where the amount of available data may differ for each country and component, utilizing the average effect is a sensible approach. This method provides a more accurate and consistent evaluation of quality of life rankings, allowing for standardized comparisons across countries. Ultimately, this leads to a more reliable and informative analysis of the dataset.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the effect coding method presents a valuable alternative for retirees from the USA and Canada to make well-informed decisions regarding their Latin American retirement destinations. By adjusting traditional quality of life indexes based on deviations in component values, this methodology offers a more tailored and balanced assessment of countries' livability factors. Through this reevaluation, retirees can gain insights into how different countries perform in key areas such as cost of living, safety, healthcare, and more, helping them prioritize their needs and preferences for a fulfilling retirement. 

As retirees navigate the options available to them, the effect coding method serves as a powerful tool to guide their choices and ensure that their fixed incomes can support a high quality of life in their chosen retirement destination.

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