Showing posts with label Property Tax. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Property Tax. Show all posts

Saturday, August 1, 2026

TOMORROW: The wait is over.

For years, the mass appraisal and property tax industry has relied on a dangerous assumption: If the median ratio looks good, the assessment roll is fair.

Tomorrow, we shatter that illusion.

Beyond the Median: How to Unmask the Multi-Million Dollar Appeals Tsunami in Modern Mass Appraisal officially goes live tomorrow, Sunday, August 2nd!

In this book, we step beyond aggregate central tendency to expose the silent "double whammy" hidden inside traditional single-entry CAMA models—where lower-value homes face systemic over-assessment while luxury assets carry massive untaxed cushions.

More importantly, this volume delivers an immediately actionable, non-black-box solution:

·   The Double-Entry Mass Appraisal (DEMA™) Framework

·   The Ten Commandments of Valuation Modeling

·   Extended Percentile Ratio Auditing & Champ-Challenger Diagnostics

Whether you are a chief appraiser, assessment analyst, appeal attorney, mass appeal consultant, or public finance official, this playbook gives you the tools to unmask roll distortions, restore constitutional equity, and stop tax appeal waves before they start.

Keep an eye on this feed tomorrow morning for the official release link and launch announcement!

#MassAppraisal #AVM #CAMA #PropertyTax #Econometrics #RealEstateValuation #AssessmentEquity #PublicFinance #BeyondTheMedian #BookLaunch

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

COMING SOON | Beyond the Median: How to Unmask the Multi-Million Dollar Appeals Tsunami in Modern Mass Appraisal

For decades, assessing offices and valuation professionals have taken shelter behind a single statistical shield: aggregate central tendency.

Chief appraisers and oversight boards point to neat median ratios near 1.00 and low CODs to certify tentative rolls, declaring statistical compliance accomplished. But in today’s volatile property tax environment, a healthy median is a dangerous illusion.

Beneath smooth central averages, traditional one-step CAMA models (sales-based models generating the Tentative Rolls) routinely embed a silent "double whammy":

1.   Severe over-assessment concentrated on lower-value and working-class properties—triggering an uncontrollable tsunami of tax appeals and Review Commission / Value Adjustment Board petitions.

2.   Massive under-assessment on high-end luxury and commercial assets—allowing billions in baseline property tax wealth to vanish untaxed.

It’s time to look beyond the median.

My upcoming book drops this Sunday, August 2nd!

In this book, I introduce the practical, two-step Double-Entry Mass Appraisal (DEMA™) framework and The Ten Commandments of Valuation Modeling. We show how assessing staff can use extended percentile audits and the Champ-Challenger approach to unmask hidden roll distortions—offering an immediately usable stop-gap solution that requires zero changes to existing CAMA workflows.

#MassAppraisal #AVM #CAMA #PropertyTax #Econometrics #RealEstateValuation #AssessmentEquity #PublicFinance 

Monday, July 27, 2026

The Ten Commandments of Valuation Modeling (AVM and CAMA)

Most assessing offices still follow the traditional one-step CAMA process. We believe the industry needs a clearer, more disciplined standard.

Today I am sharing a condensed version of The Ten Commandments of Valuation Modeling on Substack and Patreon. These ten non-negotiable principles cover everything from percentile-based sampling and holdout testing to time as an independent variable, systematic outlier removal, and the validation of OLS assumptions required for true BLUE status.

The full 14-page chapter — with detailed explanations and practical guidance — will appear as Chapter 1 in my upcoming book:

Beyond the Median: How to Unmask the Multi-Million Dollar Appeals Tsunami in Modern Mass Appraisal

If you work in assessment, serve on a VAB or Review Commission, or consult in this space, these Commandments offer a practical code of practice you can apply immediately.

Read the condensed version here: 

Link to Article on Patreon

Link to Article on Substack

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

The Assessment Fire Alarm: Why Single-Point Averages Hide Multi-Million Dollar Roll Risks

For decades, traditional mass appraisal has relied on central tendency metrics—averages and medians—as statistical shields. But evaluating a tentative tax roll solely on a median is like checking the average depth of a river before jumping in: it tells you nothing about the ten-foot hole hiding in the middle.

In our newly released finale for Phase 1—Session 4C: The Champ-Challenger Showdown—we deploy Extended Percentile Analysis (10th to 90th Percentiles) across a 60,870-property tentative roll to unmask the hidden tail distortions that legacy CAMA models overlook.

What the Extended Percentile Curve Reveals:

· The Over-Assessment Vortex (10th Percentile): Working-class homestead owners at the bottom decile face a crushing 34.8% over-assessment penalty (JVR of 0.6517), directly driving the surge in appeal petitions and Value Adjustment Board challenges.

· The Uncollected Revenue Leak (90th Percentile): Luxury residential properties at the top decile drop to an under-assessed 1.5141 JVR ceiling, allowing vast baseline property assets to fly under the tax radar.

· The Equity Gap: While the Homestead class suffers an extreme 0.8624 spread between its floor and ceiling, Non-Homestead investors enjoy a tight, protected 0.3648 spread.

An Actionable Guardrail for Every Jurisdiction

You don't need a multi-million dollar software overhaul or statutory changes to start catching these distortions. Every assessment department can immediately implement two critical safeguards within their existing sales-based workflows:

1. Front-End Guardrail: Test sales samples across 10th-to-90th percentiles—rather than relying on medians alone—before calibrating models.

2. Back-End Guardrail: Stratify post-model ratios by key foundational variables (Town vs. Suburb, Homestead vs. Non-Homestead) across extended percentiles to identify spatial and class equity rifts.

Session 4C provides the practical "Fire Alarm" diagnostic that assessing staff can run today to mitigate litigation exposure, protect vulnerable taxpayers, and restore true constitutional uniformity.

Read the full Session 4C post now on Substack and Patreon.

Link to Patreon

Link to Substack

#PropertyTax #MassAppraisal #CAMA #DataAnalytics #PublicFinance #TaxPolicy #DEMA #AssessmentEquity

Monday, July 20, 2026

The Champ-Challenger Showdown Finale

This Wednesday at 8:00 AM EST, Phase 1 reaches its definitive climax.

For decades, legacy single-entry CAMA infrastructure—"The Champ"—has ruled property tax administration. But when pitted against the raw, unvarnished truth of a 60,870-property countywide tentative roll, the Champ gets knocked flat on the canvas.

In Session 4C, we skip the repetitive post-outlier breakdowns and go straight to the raw financial scene. By executing a baseline 2x2 matrix across both Location (Town vs. Suburbs) and Ownership Status (Homestead vs. Non-Homestead), we reveal the full scale of structural damage left behind by legacy single-entry modeling.

The raw population numbers speak for themselves:

· A Geographic Rift: An urban over-assessment litigation time bomb sitting alongside a multi-million-dollar suburban revenue leakage.

· A 30% Modal Over-Assessment Vortex: Proof that while high-value luxury estates enjoy suppressed assessments, working-class permanent homeowners carry the deficit.

· The Transfer of the Crown: Why the crowd is cheering for Double-Entry Mass Appraisal (DEMA™)—the agile Challenger that acts as both a Shield (neutralizing appeals) and a Sword (recapturing lost revenue without raising tax rates).

What’s dropping this Wednesday at 8 AM EST:

· Free Executive Summary: The complete dramatic breakdown of the Champ’s downfall and DEMA’s victory lap.

· Paid Subscriber Portal Release: Unedited textbook manuscript draft, interactive workbooks, and details on closed-door technical analysis.

Whether you are in local government looking to protect your tax base or a consultant advocating for property tax equity, you won't want to miss the crowning of the new standard in mass appraisal.

Mark your calendars for Wed 8:00 AM EST. The reign of single-entry CAMA is officially over.

#MassAppraisal #AVM #CAMA #DEMA #PropertyTax #TaxAssessment #ForensicValuation #DataAnalytics #CrossoverDreamers

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Introducing DEMA™ (Double-Entry Mass Appraisal)

What if the traditional one-step CAMA approach is the root cause of the appeals tsunami?

We’ve been building a better way.

In Sessions 4A and 4B, we demonstrated the complete Double-Entry Mass Appraisal (DEMA™) protocol:

· First Entry (Sales-Based Modeling): Builds the tentative roll with econometric soundness (BLUE status) and IAAO compliance.

· Second Entry (Population-Based Equalization): Cleans the roll by identifying and correcting population-level distortions before it is finalized.

This two-sided ledger approach — DEMA™ — is the true Nirvana of modern mass appraisal: proactive equity instead of reactive defense.

Session 4C, the grand finale of Phase 1, will deliver the final Champ-Challenger showdown between the Central Taxing District and the Town Taxing District. This direct comparison will identify the major faultlines when the jurisdiction roll is generated by two separate models (in-town vs. suburbs). 4C will complete our end-to-end DEMA™ solution next week.

To read Session 4B and run the DEMA™ Protocol on your own database:

Link to Substack

Link to Patreon

If you work in assessing, serve on a VAB or Review Commission, or consult in this space, DEMA™ offers a practical path to stronger rolls and fewer appeals.

Tag colleagues who should see this series:

#DEMA #CAMA #IAAO #MassAppraisal #PropertyAssessment #ValuationModeling #VAB 

Thursday, July 31, 2025

How to Appeal Your Home Assessment: A Step-by-Step Guide with the Comparable Sales Approach

Are you confused about your recent property tax assessment? Many homeowners feel that their assessed value doesn't accurately reflect the current market conditions. While tax assessments are meant to be precise, they often rely on mass appraisals and algorithms that can overlook the nuances of individual properties and the latest market changes. If you believe your assessment is too high, don't worry! You have the right to appeal it. One of the most effective strategies for doing this is the comparable sales approach. This method involves examining recent sales of properties similar to yours to establish a more accurate fair market value.

In this blog post, we will guide you through a simple process to challenge your home's assessed value using the comparable sales approach. We will analyze recent sales data from the County Assessor's records and demonstrate how to select suitable comparable properties (“comps”), adjust their sale prices, and estimate a fair market value for your home. Follow our example using a subject property located in a Planned Unit Development (PUD), valued as of January 1, 2025, to learn how to build a strong case for your appeal.

Description of the Subject Property

The subject property is a 19-year-old single-family home situated within a desirable PUD. This community offers residents access to extensive amenities, including a golf course. The property itself features a land area of 7,405 square feet and a comfortable living area of 1,647 square feet. Notably, it does not include a golf course lot or a private swimming pool, making it comparable to properties without these specific high-value features.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

The Steps

Compiling the Comps List: Although there are 35 assessor-identified qualified (i.e., arms-length sales) property sales within the PUD during 2024, we've excluded 10 sales from our analysis because they are situated on golf course lots or properties with swimming pools, which do not apply to our subject.

Valuation Method: To determine a fair market value, we'll use a straightforward comparable sales ("comp sales") approach.

Comps Selection: Out of the available 25 comps, the five most comparable properties ("final five") will be selected. The selection criteria are as follows:

1.   Living Area Proximity: Living areas must be within 15% of the subject's living area of 1,647 square feet.

o   15% of 1,647 sq ft is 0.15×1647=247.05 sq ft.

o   Minimum acceptable living area: 1647247.05=1399.95 sq ft.

o   Maximum acceptable living area: 1647+247.05=1894.05 sq ft.

o   Therefore, the living area range for comps is approximately 1,400 sq ft to 1,894 sq ft.

2.   Proximity to Valuation Date: If more than five comps meet the living area criteria, we will prioritize the five properties with sale dates closest to January 1, 2025, to minimize the need for time adjustments.

Adjustments to Comps: Once we select these final five, we'll adjust their sale prices based on size and price. For example, the sale prices of properties with living areas smaller than 1,647 square feet will be adjusted upward by multiplying the size difference by the average sale price per living square foot (SP/LA) of $161. Conversely, for properties larger than 1,647 square feet, their sale prices will be adjusted downward based on the size difference multiplied by the SP/LA of $161.

Value Conclusion: The final step will be to determine the subject property's value by averaging the adjusted sale prices of the final five.

Rationale: Additionally, we'll provide a detailed explanation of the rationale for selecting the final five that contribute to the valuation of the subject.

Step 1: Identifying Potential Comps Based on Living Area

Let's examine the data and filter for properties with living areas between 1,400 sq ft and 1,894 sq ft:

Step 2: Selecting the Five Comps Closest to the Valuation Date

We have more than five properties that meet the living area criteria. Now, we will select the final five with sale dates closest to January 1, 2025.

The sales closest to the valuation date of January 1, 2025 (i.e., later in 2024), are:

1.   COMP-25: Sale Date: 12/01/24 (Living Area: 1,869 sq ft)

2.   COMP-22: Sale Date: 11/01/24 (Living Area: 1,647 sq ft)

3.   COMP-21: Sale Date: 10/01/24 (Living Area: 1,869 sq ft)

4.   COMP-20: Sale Date: 10/01/24 (Living Area: 1,647 sq ft)

5.   COMP-18: Sale Date: 09/01/24 (Living Area: 1,470 sq ft)

These five comparable sales will be used as our final five.

Rationale for Comparable Selection

The selection of these final five (comparable properties) is based on two key principles crucial for accurate property valuation:

1.   Similarity in Key Attributes: The primary filter of living area within 15% of the subject ensures that the chosen comparables are fundamentally similar in size, a significant driver of property value. This selection minimizes the need for drastic adjustments. While other factors like land area and building age are considered in a full appraisal, focusing on living area first provides a strong initial set of comps. The data used indicates that most of the chosen comps also have similar land areas and building ages, further reinforcing their comparability.

2.   Recency of Sale: By prioritizing the most recent sales (those closest to the January 1, 2025, valuation date), we minimize the impact of market fluctuations over time, reducing or eliminating the need for complex time adjustments, which can introduce subjectivity and potential inaccuracies into the valuation process. In a dynamic real estate market, recent sales data provides the most relevant snapshot of current market value.

3.   Exclusion of Non-Comparable Features: The comps list already excludes properties with golf course lots or swimming pools, ensuring the selected comps align with the subject’s characteristics within the PUD.

4. Age Consideration: The selected properties have ages (15–19 years) close to the subject’s 19 years, minimizing the need for age-related adjustments.

Adjustment Formula: Difference in Living Area × SP/LA of $161

Value Conclusion:

To determine the subject property's value, we average the adjusted sale prices of the five comparable properties:

Average Adjusted Sale Price = (249,158+249,400+262,858+275,000+228,497)/5

Average Adjusted Sale Price = 252,983

Based on this comparable sales analysis, the estimated fair market value for the subject property as of January 1, 2025, is approximately $253,000.

This analysis provides a clear and justifiable method for estimating the subject's value, which can be a strong basis for appealing a high assessment.

Scatter Plot


Scatter Plot: The plot shows sale price vs. living area for all 25 comparable properties. The final five comps (COMP-18, COMP-20, COMP-21, COMP-22, COMP-25), used for the subject property’s valuation, are highlighted in orange, while the other 20 comps are in blue.

Trendline: The blue trendline illustrates the positive relationship between Living Area and Sale Price.

Graph Integration: Including this scatter plot in the analysis section helps visually justify the selection of the final five comps, which have living areas close to the subject’s 1,647 sq ft.

Conclusion

Appealing your home assessment might seem daunting, but by diligently applying the comparable sales approach, you can arm yourself with solid evidence to support your case. We've explored how to identify relevant sales data, select the most comparable properties based on key features and sale recency, and make necessary adjustments to arrive at a well-supported estimate of your property's fair market value. Remember, a thorough and well-documented analysis is key to a successful appeal. By taking the time to understand and utilize the comparable sales method, you can confidently advocate for a more accurate assessment and potentially achieve significant savings on your property taxes.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog post is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute professional legal, real estate, or tax advice. While we aim to provide accurate and helpful content, property assessment appeals can be complex and are subject to specific local laws, regulations, and individual circumstances. The methods and examples discussed herein are for illustrative purposes only and may not apply to every situation.

It is highly recommended that you consult with a qualified real estate professional, appraiser, attorney, or tax advisor regarding your specific property and any assessment appeal matters. Relying solely on the information presented here may not be sufficient for a successful appeal. We do not assume any liability for decisions made based on the content of this blog post. Always verify information with official sources and seek professional guidance when necessary.

Upcoming Book on Property Tax Assessment Appeals

My forthcoming book will provide an in-depth exploration of how to successfully challenge over-assessed property valuations. Packed with practical examples, the book will cover a wide range of property types, including those in Homeowners Associations (HOAs), non-HOA communities, beachfront properties, and more. For tax professionals and mass filers, I’ll include, among others, time-adjusted comps analysis and advanced regression-based solutions that offer statistically robust methods for crafting compelling appeals. Whether you’re a homeowner or a professional, this book will equip you with the tools and strategies needed to navigate the appeal process with confidence. Stay tuned for its release!


Thursday, November 28, 2024

Sid's Bookshelf: Elevate Your Personal and Business Potential

 Note: These books are also available on Amazon in Paperback and Hardcover versions

28. The Quantitative Country Analyst: A Data-Driven Guide to Global Mobility

                                 PDF Version

                                    Kindle Version

27. The Nomad's Compass: A Data-Driven Guide to Global Retirement and Investment

                             PDF Version        

                             Kindle Version

26. The Pensionado Path: A Comprehensive Exploratory Guide to Affordable Retirement in Latin America

                               PDF Version

                                 Kindle Version

25. Tax Justice: A Blueprint for Replacing Property Taxes with Middle-Class-Friendly Reforms

                                 PDF Version

                                 Kindle Version

24. Revolutionizing Property Tax Assessment: Navigating a Shifting Real Estate Market in the Era of Declining Commercial Tax Revenue

                                  Kindle Version

                                  PDF Version

23. The Art and Science of Comparable Sales Analysis in Property Valuation

                    Kindle Version

                                PDF Version

22. Mastering Mass Appraisal Modeling: A Hands-On Guide with Real-World Data

                        Kindle Version

                          PDF Version

21. From Basics to Breakthroughs: A Beginner's Journey in Data Analysis and Modeling in Excel

                          Kindle Version

                             PDF Version

20. A Beginner’s Guide to Automated Valuation Modeling (AVM): Step-by-Step Demonstration of Model Development with Real-World Data and Numerous Illustrations

                      Kindle Version

                        PDF Version

19. A Beginner's Guide to Hands-on Statistical Analysis and Modeling in Excel with Housing Case Studies

                   Kindle Version

                     PDF Version

18. Bailing out the Dysfunctional US Property Tax System

            Kindle Version

                    PDF Version

17B.  Revolutionizing Resale: An AI-Assisted Guide to Tesla Model Y Market Trends for Consumers and Industry Analysts

                Kindle Version

                PDF Version

17A. Data-Driven Decisions: Unlocking the Tesla Model 3 Resale Market and Buying Strategies with AI

               Kindle Version

               PDF Version

 16. The AI Advantage: Strategic Retirement Planning for New Professionals 

         Kindle Version

             PDF Version

15. From Stay-at-Home to Successful Entrepreneurs: AI-Assisted Property Assessment Appeals

             Kindle Version            

             PDF Version

14. Mastering Assessment Ratio Challenges: A Comprehensive AI-Enhanced Guide for Appraisers and Property Tax Professionals

         Kindle Version               

              PDF Version

13. AI-Assisted Property Assessment Appeals: A Comprehensive Guide to Winning Your Case and Reducing Property Taxes with Advanced Strategies

            Kindle Version

            PDF Version

12. Automated Valuation Modeling (AVM) Made Easy: A Beginner's Guide with Interactive AI Chatbot ChatGPT and Real-World Data

            Kindle Version

            PDF Version

11. AI-Curated Wedding Menus: A Comprehensive Guide to Menu Planning and Cost Management

            Kindle Version

            PDF Version

10. The AI Revolution: Reshaping the Future of Work

            Kindle Version

            PDF Version

9. AI Revolutionizing Real Estate: Exploring Case Shiller Index for Smart Predictions

            Kindle Version

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8. AI Investing 101: A Comprehensive Guide for New Investors in the Stock Market

            Kindle Version

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7. Revolutionizing Data Analysis and Modeling with AI: A Hands-On Guide

            Kindle Version

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6. AI Unleashed: Mastering the Art of Investing in Magnificent Seven Bellwether Stocks

            Kindle Version

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5. Mastering the Stock Market with AI: Advanced Analysis and Strategic Techniques

            Kindle Version

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4. The Conversational AI Revolution: How ChatGPT and Bard Are Changing the Way We Communicate

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3. The Future of Housing: A Guide to AI-Powered Real Estate Solutions

            Kindle Version

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2. How to Use AI Chatbot Bard to Master Data Analysis and Modeling

            Kindle Version

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1. Conversations with ChatGPT: Exploring the Future of Humanity (Updated 2.0 is available)

            Kindle Version 

            PDF Version


Wednesday, October 2, 2024

Food-for-Thought: Replacing Property Tax with Middle-Class Friendly Progressive Consumption Taxes

Many homeowners perceive the current property tax system as inherently regressive, with the middle class bearing the brunt of subsidizing wealthier homeowners. For many, property taxes are seen as an annual burden, particularly troubling for seniors and minorities, who are often forced out of their neighborhoods. Single-family residences typically are the most significant investments for Americans, and local governments rely heavily on property taxes as a primary source of revenue.

This proposal outlines a series of progressive revenue sources to replace property taxes and alleviate this inequity.

1. Million-Dollar Home Sales Surtax: Impose a progressive surtax on homes sold for over $1 million, with higher rates for more expensive properties. This would generate additional revenue while mitigating the impact of eliminating property taxes on high-end homeowners.

a) Implement a graduated surtax on the sale of high-value homes.

b) Rates should increase progressively based on the sale price to ensure that those who benefit most from the phase-out of property taxes contribute a more significant share.

c) This would help stabilize the high-end housing market and discourage speculative buying.

2. Higher Transfer Taxes for Short-Term Property Flipping: Implement significantly higher transfer taxes for properties sold within a short period, discouraging speculative trading and flipping. This would ensure that property taxes primarily benefit long-term homeowners.

a) Impose significantly higher transfer taxes on properties sold within a short holding period.

b) This would discourage short-term flipping and ensure that those who profit from rapid property value increases contribute more to local revenue.

c) Exemptions could be made for certain circumstances, such as job-related relocations or medical emergencies.

3. Increased Taxes on Income-Producing Single-Family Rentals: Treat single-family homes used as primary residences differently from those converted into rentals. Impose higher sales and transfer taxes on investor-owned properties to reflect their income-generating nature.

a) Treat income-producing single-family rentals differently from primary residences.

b) Impose higher sales, property, and transfer taxes on these properties to reflect their commercial nature.

c) This would help address concerns about the growing number of single-family homes converted into rentals.

4. Additional Airbnb Surtax Revenue: Airbnb (and similar platforms) must collect and remit additional surtaxes to local governments, ensuring that the platform contributes to the tax base and offsets potential revenue losses from traditional hotels.

a) Airbnb and similar platforms must collect and remit surtaxes to local governments.

b) This would ensure that these platforms contribute to the costs of services they utilize, such as infrastructure and public safety.

5. Progressive Surtax on Luxury Durable Goods: Introduce a progressive surtax on high-value consumer goods. This would provide a more equitable alternative to property taxes while generating revenue.

a) Implement a progressive surtax on the purchase of luxury durable goods.

b) This would provide a more equitable source of revenue and reduce the reliance on property taxes.

c) Rates should be progressive based on the type and value of those goods.

Additional Considerations:

a) Administrative Efficiency: Reducing (leading to eliminating) property tax assessment offices could result in significant cost savings for local governments.

b) Public Services: Careful planning is necessary to ensure that the loss of property tax revenue does not negatively impact essential public services.

c) Economic Impact: The proposed reforms should be carefully analyzed (initial studies by independent research firms followed by pilot projects) to assess their potential economic consequences, including any unintended effects on housing markets or consumer behavior.

By implementing these reforms, local governments can progressively generate revenue, reducing the burden on middle-class homeowners while maintaining essential services. Additionally, eliminating property taxes could lead to significant savings for homeowners and businesses. This approach promotes a more equitable and sustainable tax system.

- Originally Published on 06-26-2020 

Sid's Bookshelf: Elevate Your Personal and Business Potential


50% Off This Weekend Only – Five Practical Valuation Modeling Books

This weekend only, I’m running a straightforward 50% off campaign on the PDF editions of my five most recent valuation modeling books. The...