For decades, assessing offices and valuation professionals have taken shelter behind a single statistical shield: aggregate central tendency.
Chief appraisers and oversight boards point to neat median ratios
near 1.00 and low CODs to certify tentative rolls, declaring statistical
compliance accomplished. But in today’s volatile property tax environment, a
healthy median is a dangerous illusion.
Beneath smooth central averages, traditional one-step CAMA models (sales-based
models generating the Tentative Rolls) routinely embed a silent "double
whammy":
1. Severe
over-assessment concentrated on lower-value and working-class
properties—triggering an uncontrollable tsunami of tax appeals and Review
Commission / Value Adjustment Board petitions.
2. Massive
under-assessment on high-end luxury and commercial assets—allowing billions in
baseline property tax wealth to vanish untaxed.
It’s time to look beyond the median.
My upcoming book drops this Sunday, August 2nd!
In this book, I introduce the practical, two-step Double-Entry
Mass Appraisal (DEMA™) framework and The Ten Commandments of Valuation
Modeling. We show how assessing staff can use extended percentile audits
and the Champ-Challenger approach to unmask hidden roll distortions—offering an
immediately usable stop-gap solution that requires zero changes to existing
CAMA workflows.
#MassAppraisal #AVM #CAMA #PropertyTax #Econometrics
#RealEstateValuation #AssessmentEquity #PublicFinance
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