Nasdaq Valuation Indicators and Rebalancing – Google Bard Weighs in!

 

Sid: Based on these technical indicators of Nasdaq composite, is it overvalued, undervalues, or fairly valued?

Bard: Based on the technical indicators in the image, the Nasdaq Composite is overvalued. The 50-day moving average is higher than the 100-day moving average, and the 100-day moving average is lower than the 50-day moving average. This suggests that the Nasdaq Composite is overbought and is due for a correction.

The 100-day stochastic is also above 80, which is a reading that is considered to be overbought. The 100-day relative strength is also above 50, which suggests that the Nasdaq Composite is overvalued relative to its historical performance.

Of course, technical indicators are not always reliable, and the Nasdaq Composite could continue to rise in the short term. However, the indicators suggest that the market is due for a correction, and investors should be cautious about buying stocks at current levels.

Here is a summary of the technical indicators and their implications for the valuation of the Nasdaq Composite:

·       50-day moving average: The 50-day moving average is a measure of the average price of the Nasdaq Composite over the past 50 days. When the 50-day moving average is higher than the 100-day moving average, it suggests that the market is overbought and is due for a correction.

·       100-day moving average: The 100-day moving average is a measure of the average price of the Nasdaq Composite over the past 100 days. When the 100-day moving average is lower than the 50-day moving average, it suggests that the market is overbought and is due for a correction.

·       100-day stochastic: The 100-day stochastic is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage of time that the Nasdaq Composite has closed above its 100-day moving average. When the 100-day stochastic is above 80, it suggests that the market is overbought and is due for a correction.

·       100-day relative strength: The 100-day relative strength is a measure of the performance of the Nasdaq Composite relative to its historical performance. When the 100-day relative strength is above 50, it suggests that the market is overvalued relative to its historical performance.

However, it is important to note that technical indicators are not always reliable. The market can do the opposite of what the technical indicators suggest. Therefore, it is important to consider other factors before making an investment decision.

Here are some other factors to consider:

·       The overall economic environment.

·       The performance of other asset classes, such as bonds and commodities.

·       The news flow.

·       The valuations of individual stocks.

Ultimately, the decision of whether to invest in the Nasdaq Composite is a personal one. You should weigh all of the factors involved before making a decision.

Sid: These technical indicators, combined with data on the overall economic environment, performance of other asset classes, news flow, and valuations of individual stocks, lead to the question: Is the Nasdaq composite overvalued?

Bard: The Nasdaq Composite is a market-cap weighted index, which means that the stocks with the highest market capitalization have the greatest influence on the index's value. As a result, the Nasdaq Composite is heavily influenced by the performance of tech stocks.

Tech stocks have been on a tear in recent years, driven by factors such as the rise of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and mobile devices. However, there are some concerns that tech stocks are becoming overvalued.

For example, the Shiller P/E ratio, which is a measure of the price-to-earnings ratio relative to historical averages, is currently at about 28. This is above the historical average of around 16, which suggests that tech stocks are overvalued.

Additionally, the news flow surrounding tech stocks has been mixed in recent months. There have been some positive developments, such as the strong earnings reports from tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. However, there have also been some negative developments, such as the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.

Overall, the evidence suggests that the Nasdaq Composite is overvalued. However, it is important to note that the market can do the opposite of what the technical indicators suggest. Therefore, it is important to consider all of the factors involved before making an investment decision.

Here are some of the factors that could influence the valuation of the Nasdaq Composite in the future:

·       The pace of economic growth.

·       The direction of interest rates.

·       The performance of other asset classes.

·       The news flow surrounding tech stocks.

·       The valuations of individual stocks.

It is impossible to predict with certainty whether the Nasdaq Composite will be overvalued or undervalued in the future. However, by carefully considering all of the factors involved, investors can make informed decisions about whether to invest in the index.

Sid: Will you still maintain that the Nasdaq composite is overvalued, given the Fed Chair's (tentative) announcement of two more interest rate hikes in the second half of this year? Interest rates heavily influence the tech market.

Bard: Yes, I would still maintain that the Nasdaq Composite is overvalued, given the Fed Chair's announcement of two more interest rate hikes in the second half of this year. Interest rates heavily influence the tech market, and rising interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow money. This can lead to lower earnings growth and lower stock prices.

In addition, the Fed's announcement of more rate hikes suggests that the central bank is concerned about inflation. This could lead to slower economic growth, which would also hurt tech stocks.

Of course, it is impossible to say for sure whether the Nasdaq Composite will remain overvalued in the future. However, I believe that the factors I have mentioned make it more likely that the index will decline in value.

Here are some other factors that could influence the valuation of the Nasdaq Composite in the future:

·       The performance of other asset classes.

·       The news flow surrounding tech stocks.

·       The valuations of individual stocks.

It is important to keep an eye on these factors and to adjust your investment strategy accordingly.

Sid: I agree that the Nasdaq Composite is a market-cap weighted index. This means that the stocks with the highest market capitalization have the most significant impact on the index's value. Currently, the so-called "Magnificent Seven" stocks account for more than half the index's weight, with AAPL and MSFT together accounting for 25% of the overall index. The overbearing influence of trillion-cap stocks has exposed the cap-weighted index's imprudence. However, the index committee is ready to rebalance the weighting to address this issue, expected on July 24, 2023. I think the individual weighting should be capped at 4-5%. What are your thoughts?

Bard: I agree with you that the Nasdaq Composite is a market-cap weighted index and that the current weighting of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks is too high. I also think that the individual weighting should be capped at 4-5%.

This would help to reduce the concentration risk in the index and make it more representative of the overall market. It would also help to prevent the index from being too volatile, as the weighting of the largest stocks would be reduced.

I think that the index committee is making the right decision to rebalance the weighting of the Nasdaq Composite. This will make the index more stable and less susceptible to the whims of a few large stocks.

Here are some of the benefits of capping the individual weighting of stocks in an index:

·       It reduces concentration risk, which is the risk that a small number of stocks have too much influence on the index's value.

·       It makes the index more representative of the overall market.

·       It can help to stabilize the index's price.

Of course, there are also some potential drawbacks to capping the individual weighting of stocks in an index. For example, it could reduce the liquidity of the index, as there would be less trading in the largest stocks. Additionally, it could make the index less responsive to changes in the underlying market.

Overall, I believe that the benefits of capping the individual weighting of stocks in an index outweigh the drawbacks. I think that the Nasdaq Composite will be a more stable and representative index as a result of the rebalancing.

Data Sources: IBD and Barchart.com

Note: All conversations here are unedited. E&OE.

Note: Bard is a registered trademark of Google.